Talk Left :No to Obama's Proposal of 50-50 in Michigan

Friday :: March 14, 2008
No to Obama's Proposal of 50-50 in Michigan
By Jeralyn, Section Blog Related
Posted on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 07:44:00 AM EST

On January 15, 2008, 594,398 Democrats went to their polling places and voted in their state's primary. The official Michigan election results are here.

328,309 Democrats in Michigan voted for Hillary Clinton. She won all but two counties, Washtenaw and Emmet. 238,168 voted uncommitted. 21,715 voted for Dennis Kucinich. 3,845 voted for Chris Dodd. 2,361 voted for Mike Gravel.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/county/#MIDEMMAPprimary
Hillary got 55% of the vote. The uncommitted, who either were truly uncommitted or for Obama, Edwards or Biden, all three of whom voluntarily withdrew their names from the ballot, got 40%. Kucinich, Dodd and Gravel won 5% of the vote.

Barack Obama now proposes he get 50% of the state's delegates. That would be vote-stealing. It would be disenfranchising 5% of Hillary's voters. It would be assuming that every uncommitted voter and every voter for Kucinich, Dodd and Gravel now want their vote to go to Obama.
That's called stealing an election.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/art icle?AID=/20080314/POLITICS01/803140381

Obama prevails in this crazy theory at his peril. There will be hundreds of thousands of Democrats across the country who will refuse to vote for him in November, thinking better a Republican than a cheat. [More...]

Just yesterday, Rasmussen moved Michigan from the "likely Democratic" column to "toss-up" for November, following a poll showing McCain with a statistically insignificant lead over both Hillary and Obama. Michigan is an important state for Dems to win in November.

By early September, 2007 when Obama took his name off (pdf)the ballot, trailed Hillary in multiple polls.

For the reasons I set forth here and here,
the DNC should remove the penalty from Michigan and Florida) and award and seat the delegates from the Jan. 15 primary now.

As Hillary told NPR yesterday about Obama's withdrawal of his name from the ballot:

   "That was his choice," she says in an interview with Steve Inskeep. "There was no rule or requirement that he take his name off the ballot. His supporters ran a very aggressive campaign to try to get people to vote uncommitted."

That's being generous. Several media commentators have suggested he withdrew his name was for strategic reasons, wanting to keep Hillary from claiming a win in a race he knew he would lose. That could also be why, unlike Hillary, he refuses to support a re-vote, maintaining it wouldn't be fair and would be fraught with peril of fraud. Only if the DNC orders it will he agree to the process.

And this is rich:

   "Our position consistently has been that the Michigan and Florida delegations should be seated [at the Democratic National Convention] and that we should come up with a system that is fair to all the parties involved," Obama says.

His reasoning seems to be, if we don't seat the delegates until the convention, we don't have to count their votes now and I'll be ahead by convention time. Once I'm the nominee, by all means, let's seat them.

There's a very simple, fair answer to the Michigan dilemna: The DNC does a big "mea culpa" and removes the penalty. Hillary gets the delegates according to her vote total. The uncommitted and other candidates' delegates remain "uncommitted" and vote how they want when they get to the convention in Denver.

For others angered by Obama's audacity in proposing a 50/50 "give me the votes I didn't win" plan, check out Corrente, RiverDaughter, Angalchel. Read their commenters too.



Display:


Re: Talk Left :No to Obama's Proposal of 50-50 in (2.00 / 2)


 He is just stalling until it is to late to matter, thinking that those voters will support him anyway, A very dangerous assumption.
Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime
by gunner on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 08:57:13 AM EST

Re: Talk Left :No to Obama's Proposal of 50-50 in (2.00 / 2)

Obama is playing around with disfranchisement as a political power tool.

That's Hopiness and Changeiness, see.


Re-elect the President in 2012
by DemAC on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:07:37 AM EST

Good luck with that (2.00 / 1)

Michigan counts as is AND Obama doesn't even get the uncommitted votes?  That's going to seem really fair to Obama fans.  Keep promoting that and odds are that the solution will be to just stick with the rules as given.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:56:42 AM EST

So it's better to disenfranchise more voters? (2.00 / 2)

So your solution to disenfranchising Michigan's voters is to... disenfranchise Michigan's voters? Instead of perhaps disenfranchising 5%, and it's not really clear that it would even do that since turnout at the first primary was pretty skewed, you'd rather seat an election that disenfranchised 45% or more? That's better how?

All the candidates in fact signed a pledge to not participate in any primary which would not count. Obama did the right thing. For that he and his campaign should not be punished. And, in any case, this is supposed to be about the voters, right? Isn't that what disenfranchisement means? What argument can you present that says it's more fair to the voters of Michigan to disenfranchise 45% than 5%?

If one is wrong, the other is 9 times as wrong.


No Way. No How. No McCain-Palin!
by Texas Gray Wolf on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:58:48 AM EST

Re: So it's better to disenfranchise more voters? (none / 0)

Thank you for your incredibly succinct and common sense take on this. This issue gets spun to absolute death by people simply trying to get the best result for HRC.

It's amazing how simple it is to forget that the DNC has rules and that Hillary agreed to them before this became an issue.


by desertjedi on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:53:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Jeralyn.. (none / 0)

..reveals why she shouldn't quit her day job.  For one, the 50-50 proposal is not an "Obama proposal."  Chris Dodd originally floated the idea, and while he has endorsed Obama, I don't believe he was speaking for the Obama campaign.


"Behold, I send you out as sheep amidst the wolves! Therefore, be as wise as a serpent, And as harmless as a dove."
by Setrak on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:59:39 AM EST

Re: Jeralyn.. (2.00 / 1)

IIRC - Obama supports the MI 50/50.
IOW - Obama supports stealing votes.
Repubs will play that in the general.
Hillary/Obama08
by annefrank on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:13:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jeralyn.. (none / 0)

So, you may remember that being his position.  Then, you say, it is his position to steal votes.

Well, if I remember correctly, you supported putting cheese on cheerios.  In other words, you have horrible taste in food.


by Tantris on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:23:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jeralyn.. (none / 0)

What part don't you understand??
The Repubs will play that in the general.
Get it??

Hillary/Obama08
by annefrank on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:05:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jeralyn.. (none / 0)

They will play what exactly?  That the Democratic Party stood firm to punish people that broke the rules?  Who cares?  Even in the states that this happened in, there is no real consensus opinion.  Most people seem to believe that the votes that happened were not real.

I think they will attack on a lot better issues than this.  I am glad a revote will happen, but this is not "sky is falling" territory.  If the primary were finished now, this would all be settled.


by Tantris on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 12:42:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Jeralyn.. (none / 0)

Woah, facts!

Actually, word coming out from Michigan(per front page article), sounds as if Obama and Clinton are working with the Michigan Democratic Party to redo the vote.  Florida sounds as though it might not make it, based on momentum and direction...but, it sounds like Michigan will.

Amusingly, if you are an Obama fan this is the best case scenario.  Obama has a good chance of winning Michigan, but would lose Florida.


by Tantris on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:18:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Then MI deserves NO delegates (none / 0)

Fine, then don't seat any delegates from Michigan.

They broke the rules and now Clinton wants to change the rules in the middle of the game.

Screw that.


Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.
by Walt Starr on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:59:43 AM EST

Re: Then MI deserves NO delegates (2.00 / 1)

Clinton doesn't want to "change the rules."
Obama took his name off the ballot to "comply with the rules."
But Iowa, NH, and SC also "broke the rules" - and Obama had no problem being on their ballots.

The bottom line is - Michigan voters must be heard.
Obama's position is steal....er splitting the votes 50/50.


Hillary/Obama08
by annefrank on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:16:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Then MI deserves NO delegates (none / 0)

That is his position, EXCEPT, on the front page of MyDD(not an Obama biased place), we have it saying that the Obama campaign and the Clinton campaign are close to working out the Michigan revote.  So, maybe that is your belief of Obama's position.


by Tantris on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:20:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Then MI deserves NO delegates (none / 0)

I'm fine with a revote.

But no revote = no delegates or split delegates.


Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.
by Walt Starr on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:59:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Then MI deserves NO delegates (none / 0)

The 50/50 split is following the rules.  It was agreed that MI wouldn't count.  This way it lets the delegates be seated so they could enjoy the convention.  


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:31:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Then MI deserves NO delegates (none / 0)

Alternatively, they could seat the delegations but strip them of any vote for presidential nominee.


Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.
by Walt Starr on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:00:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Then MI deserves NO delegates (2.00 / 1)

One of the amazing things to me is that the DNC actually had the audacity to be quoted as saying that FL and MI did NOT have the right to break the rules, only a few other states did, therefore FL and MI needed to be punished.  Is that talking out both sides of your mouth or what?  FL and MI took no worse action than other states who attempted to move up their elections(some with success who were apparently allowed to "break the rules" with the DNC's blessing).  

I don't know the details of MI's actions, but despite there being a few Democrats involved at the state level in suggesting and agreeing with the Republican-led legislature in moving up Florida's vote, why does the DNC not have a problem with the Replublicans effectively destroying our election process?  And yet the DNC is pointing fingers at these two states and saying shame on them--we're going to make an example of them.  Quit this power struggle and give these 2.2 million Democrat voters in MI and FL their constitutionally given right to vote!


HRC: "...not a vote to rush to war--it...puts awesome responsibility in the hands of our President, we say to him 'Use these powers wisely and as a last resort.'"
by ChargedFan on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:02:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Talk Left :No to Obama's Proposal of 50-50 in (2.00 / 1)

Chris Dodd did make this proposal and it's beyond ridiculous, and I said before that he's compromised his integrity in even suggesting it.  Either count them or don't - if they want a revote and someone offers up the money, have it.

I've already given up on their being a legitimate solution that will make everyone happy and I blame Dean for faulty reasoning on this matter - how the GOP managed to screw this up less than the DNC is beyond me.


by ejintx on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:17:24 AM EST

Re: Talk Left :No to Obama's Proposal (none / 0)

As Texas Gray Wolf adeptly points out, seating this delegation "as-is" disenfranchises the 45% of the voters whose candidate's name wasn't on the ballot.

That is the WORST of all scenarios.  At least the option of not seating the delegation at all "disenfranchises" ALL Michigan voters EQUALLY, rather than the most unfair situation where ONLY Clinton votes are counted.


by goodnbad on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:29:31 AM EST

Re: No to Obama's 50-50 Proposal (2.00 / 1)

And Obama's supporters try to say Hillary is attempting to cheat to steal the election?  I'd heard that Obama supporters have floated this idea of a 50/50 split, but not Obama himself--that greatly disappoints me and throws yet another shadow over his entire campaign in my humble opinion!  But as I've suggested elsewhere, perhaps there's some validity to splitting the already taken votes--for the "uncommited" portion of the votes already cast.  

That is, we know the outcome in FL, so seat those delegates according to the actual votes--they did have 33% higher turnout than ever before, so I don't think there's much validity to saying people stayed home because they didn't think their vote would count.  Besides, they had a property tax issue on the ballot as well, so concerned citizens were certainly out voting.  I know the Obama supporters don't like that suggestion--but in all fairness, he's the only candidate who disobeyed the rules and actually had commercials running in FL, so he should be glad to even get those votes.  

But in Michigan, it is more complicated because Barack opted to take his name off the ballot--and, yes, he opted to take his name off, there was no pressure from the DNC to remove his name, and it would seem fairly obvious that this move was part of a calculated strategy that may now backfire.  Four candidates were listed and received votes--while apparently three candidates, Obama, Edwards, and Biden, were represented by an "uncommitted" entry on the ballot, which is what their camps campaigned to have their supporters vote for.  Still Clinton got 55% of all votes placed, and the "uncommitted" entry received 40%.  So with 156 delegates available, give Clinton 55% or 86 of those.  Then split the 40% "uncommitted" votes evenly between Obama, Edwards, and Biden, meaning Obama gets 33% of that 40% or 21 delegates.  Again, since he opted to remove his name--this seems more than generous to give him these delegates.  

Bottom line, we are the United States of America, not the United States MINUS two--and these two states are too critical to the General Election, so the DNC cannot run the risk of disenfranchising these 2.2+ million Democrat voters!  Together they represent nearly 10% of all votes cast--and nobody can pretend they didn't vote.  They did vote, and we know the results!  So why put anybody to the cost of holding another election (hasn't this Primary cost enough money already?)!  Punish the state party by withholding future funds, but don't damage our chance of winning the White House back by taking away voters voices!  

Not only that, but we're the country who fights for other country's voters to have a voice and run fair elections.  What example do we set for the world, and how much worse could our reputation get, if we can't even run a fair election ourselves that gives every voter a voice?


HRC: "...not a vote to rush to war--it...puts awesome responsibility in the hands of our President, we say to him 'Use these powers wisely and as a last resort.'"
by ChargedFan on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:53:59 AM EST

Re: No to Obama's 50-50 Proposal (none / 0)

The property tax issue was the turnout in Florida. They didn't turn out primarily to vote for a Presidential nominee.

What does it do to turnout when the main reason for going out is a property tax issue? Drives turnout older and (especially in Florida, with the number of retirees and relative lifespans) more female.

Which group votes most for Clinton? Older female voters.

What groups are least interested in property tax legislation? Younger people, especially college students, and African-Americans (predominantly renters).

Which groups vote highest for Obama? Younger people, college students, and African-Americans.

The election in Florida was not set up to favor Clinton; I'm not saying that. But the demographics strongly favored her; in a more normal election Obama would almost certainly do much better. Also, in essentially every state thus far Obama's share of the vote has greatly improved where he's campaigned. Especially at the time of the Florida primary, Obama was an unknown quantity; everyone knows who Hillary Clinton is. Recognition is a big factor in voting. Being restricted from campaigning in a state is a much larger burden to the lesser-known candidate.

The existing Florida election results are badly flawed. You can't make the case that they're as bad as Michigan's results, where almost half the population was disenfranchised, but they're bad. Really bad.


No Way. No How. No McCain-Palin!
by Texas Gray Wolf on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:05:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No to Obama's 50-50 Proposal (none / 0)

All valid points.  But thank you for also acknowledging that the vote was not set up to favor Clinton even if that might have been the unintentional result of the DNC's actions.

But the vote was still a vote that represented a 33% higher turnout than ever before...and counting "real" votes certainly seems a more valid approach than assigning a completely arbitrary 50-50 split that would do exactly the opposite of counting the real votes and give votes where perhaps they would not have been earned (although I'll agree that Obama would probably close in on Clinton's lead in FL, but perhaps not that significantly since the demographics of FL do certainly favor Clinton in the Democrat party) and in no way would be representative of the "will of the people."

Bottom line, the DNC has created a terrible mess of this election and they are setting it up to be a "foul" no matter what the final outcome.  They will now be damned if they do, damned if they don't regardless of the outcome because whatever their actions to resolve this mess, it will appear to favor one candidate over another and create havoc among the losing candidates supporters.  Again, a "foul" either way--and I fear the longer this is drawn out, the worse the reaction will be.  Either way, though, we are the United States of America, not the United States MINUS two--and these two states are too critical to the General Election, so the DNC cannot run the risk of disenfranchising these 2.2+ million Democrat voters that did already place a vote!  And I truly fear that the US's reputation will be even more damanged thanks to this election process--what a terrible example we are setting.  


HRC: "...not a vote to rush to war--it...puts awesome responsibility in the hands of our President, we say to him 'Use these powers wisely and as a last resort.'"
by ChargedFan on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:19:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Talk Left :No to Obama's Proposal of 50-50 in (2.00 / 1)

Absolutely not to 50-50 tricks!


Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties
by engels on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:19:18 AM EST

Re: Talk Left :No to Obama's Proposal of 50-50 in (none / 0)

This a nightmare for both sides.  Lets face it both sides are juggling for positions.  I blame the DNC Howard Dean, Donna B and the rest of the executives


by bradydundee on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 12:15:12 PM EST


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